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Brixmor Property Group Inc. (BRX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - RetailSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.45 - $14.25$11.71
Multi-Stage$14.48 - $15.83$15.14
Blended Fair Value$13.43
Current Price$27.68
Upside-51.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.22%6.70%1.081.030.940.840.561.091.091.030.960.87
YoY Growth--5.05%8.86%12.60%50.96%-49.12%0.45%5.05%7.51%10.04%54.94%
Dividend Yield--4.07%4.53%4.39%3.25%2.75%11.49%5.93%6.78%4.48%3.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)332.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)260.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)72.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.5041.5624.94
Cash Retained (M)72.1772.1772.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.50-41.56-24.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.6730.6147.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)306.75306.75306.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.100.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.100.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.870.951.00
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-0.08%0.92%1.92%
Fair Value$9.45$11.71$14.25
Upside / Downside-65.88%-57.69%-48.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)332.51335.58338.68341.81344.97348.16358.60
Payout Ratio78.30%80.64%82.98%85.32%87.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)260.34270.60281.03291.63302.40313.34331.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-0.08%0.92%1.92%
Year 1 PV (M)245.58248.03250.49
Year 2 PV (M)231.45236.11240.81
Year 3 PV (M)217.97224.58231.32
Year 4 PV (M)205.12213.46222.04
Year 5 PV (M)192.89202.74212.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,348.563,519.503,697.35
Equity Value (M)4,441.574,644.424,855.01
Shares Outstanding (M)306.75306.75306.75
Fair Value$14.48$15.14$15.83
Upside / Downside-47.69%-45.30%-42.82%

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