Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $6,738.79 - $14,392.58 | $9,590.42 |
| Multi-Stage | $4,862.42 - $5,313.44 | $5,083.84 |
| Blended Fair Value | $7,337.13 | |
| Current Price | $14,650.00 | |
| Upside | -49.92% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 10.71% | 31.69% | 37.18 | 33.86 | 34.59 | 34.65 | 21.22 | 22.36 | 18.76 | 5.06 | 5.47 | 4.75 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 9.80% | -2.11% | -0.15% | 63.24% | -5.07% | 19.16% | 270.79% | -7.42% | 15.14% | 100.23% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.35% | 0.53% | 0.72% | 1.91% | 0.85% | 1.46% | 2.38% | 0.88% | 1.14% | 1.67% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 261,680.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 28,709.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 232,971.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 52,336.00 | 32,710.00 | 19,626.00 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 232,971.00 | 232,971.00 | 232,971.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -52,336.00 | -32,710.00 | -19,626.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 180,635.00 | 200,261.00 | 213,345.00 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 734.74 | 734.74 | 734.74 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 245.85 | 272.56 | 290.37 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 39.07 | 39.07 | 39.07 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 245.85 | 272.56 | 290.37 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 284.92 | 311.63 | 329.44 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.96% | 9.96% | 9.96% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $6,738.79 | $9,590.42 | $14,392.58 |
| Upside / Downside | -54.00% | -34.54% | -1.76% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 261,680.00 | 278,689.20 | 296,804.00 | 316,096.26 | 336,642.51 | 358,524.28 | 369,280.01 |
| Payout Ratio | 10.97% | 26.78% | 42.58% | 58.39% | 74.19% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 28,709.00 | 74,624.12 | 126,386.92 | 184,563.59 | 249,769.24 | 322,671.85 | 341,584.01 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.96% | 9.96% | 9.96% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 67,227.17 | 67,864.40 | 68,501.62 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 102,573.06 | 104,526.79 | 106,498.95 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 134,940.65 | 138,814.31 | 142,761.40 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 164,513.42 | 170,840.14 | 177,347.61 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 191,464.84 | 200,712.66 | 210,314.42 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 2,911,898.67 | 3,052,544.46 | 3,198,573.10 |
| Equity Value (M) | 3,572,617.80 | 3,735,302.75 | 3,903,997.10 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 734.74 | 734.74 | 734.74 |
| Fair Value | $4,862.42 | $5,083.84 | $5,313.44 |
| Upside / Downside | -66.81% | -65.30% | -63.73% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIGI | Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.77% | $1.48 | 22.19% |
| FUSB | First US Bancshares, Inc. | 1.76% | $0.25 | 26.72% |
| R | Ryder System, Inc. | 1.76% | $3.41 | 28.29% |
| RGA | Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated | 1.75% | $3.55 | 27.34% |
| TFG.AS | Tetragon Financial Group Limited | 1.75% | $0.30 | 3.32% |
| WFC | Wells Fargo & Company | 1.75% | $1.67 | 25.46% |
| HCKT | The Hackett Group, Inc. | 1.74% | $0.34 | 85.97% |
| LEG | Leggett & Platt, Incorporated | 1.74% | $0.19 | 11.94% |
| RPRX | Royalty Pharma plc | 1.74% | $0.67 | 49.36% |
| SFBC | Sound Financial Bancorp, Inc. | 1.74% | $0.76 | 37.96% |
| SXT | Sensient Technologies Corporation | 1.74% | $1.63 | 50.00% |
| MKTX | MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | 1.73% | $3.09 | 52.31% |
| PRG | PROG Holdings, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.51 | 12.57% |
| STEL | Stellar Bancorp, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.53 | 26.88% |
| UFCS | United Fire Group, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.62 | 14.63% |
| AMAL | Amalgamated Financial Corp. | 1.72% | $0.55 | 16.32% |
| BK | The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation | 1.72% | $2.01 | 27.06% |
| COWN | Cowen Inc. | 1.72% | $0.67 | 33.32% |
| DG | Dollar General Corporation | 1.72% | $2.35 | 40.66% |
| AMKR | Amkor Technology, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.73 | 59.04% |
| DTF | DTF Tax-Free Income 2028 Term Fund Inc. | 1.71% | $0.20 | 80.42% |
| ERIE | Erie Indemnity Company | 1.71% | $4.75 | 38.59% |
| FLXS | Flexsteel Industries, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.68 | 17.01% |
| MTCH | Match Group, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.54 | 25.07% |
| LBRT | Liberty Energy Inc. | 1.70% | $0.32 | 28.43% |
| OVBC | Ohio Valley Banc Corp. | 1.70% | $0.67 | 28.36% |
| WTFC | Wintrust Financial Corporation | 1.70% | $2.43 | 20.92% |
| BANF | BancFirst Corporation | 1.69% | $1.80 | 25.72% |
| BDL | Flanigan's Enterprises, Inc. | 1.69% | $0.50 | 21.50% |
| CDHAX | Calvert International Responsible Idx A | 1.69% | $0.64 | 41.92% |
| CINR | Sisecam Resources LP | 1.69% | $0.34 | 19.21% |
| EXPO | Exponent, Inc. | 1.69% | $1.18 | 58.07% |
| GD | General Dynamics Corporation | 1.69% | $5.80 | 37.41% |
| HQI | HireQuest, Inc. | 1.69% | $0.18 | 36.36% |
| OTF | Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. | 1.69% | $0.24 | 9.20% |
| PHIN | PHINIA Inc. | 1.68% | $1.09 | 47.78% |
| PTRS | Partners Bancorp | 1.68% | $0.12 | 13.62% |
| RNGR | Ranger Energy Services, Inc. | 1.67% | $0.24 | 34.90% |
| HQH | Abrdn Healthcare Investors | 1.66% | $0.31 | 6.95% |
| JILL | J.Jill, Inc. | 1.66% | $0.23 | 10.45% |
| PSH.AS | Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. | 1.65% | $0.85 | 6.48% |
| SKT | Tanger Inc. | 1.65% | $0.55 | 58.16% |
| USCB | USCB Financial Holdings, Inc. | 1.64% | $0.30 | 18.70% |
| BOTJ | Bank of the James Financial Group, Inc. | 1.62% | $0.30 | 26.41% |
| RS | Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | 1.62% | $4.78 | 34.66% |
| SCI | Service Corporation International | 1.62% | $1.25 | 33.57% |
| SMLP | Summit Midstream Partners, LP | 1.62% | $0.59 | 6.02% |
| TKR | The Timken Company | 1.62% | $1.40 | 32.90% |
| TRINL | Trinity Capital Inc. - 7.00% No | 1.62% | $0.41 | 20.50% |
| CARR | Carrier Global Corporation | 1.61% | $0.86 | 18.56% |