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CSSC (Hong Kong) Shipping Company Limited (3877.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.39 - $31.38$19.67
Multi-Stage$14.46 - $15.85$15.15
Blended Fair Value$17.41
Current Price$2.10
Upside729.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.03%0.00%0.120.100.090.090.080.030.240.000.000.00
YoY Growth--16.31%14.99%0.00%12.50%166.67%-87.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.65%6.96%7.72%8.21%7.30%2.28%19.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,027.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,373.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,653.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)805.42503.39302.03
Cash Retained (M)2,653.472,653.472,653.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-805.42-503.39-302.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,848.042,150.082,351.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,168.666,168.666,168.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.350.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.350.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate7.10%7.10%7.10%
Growth Rate3.08%4.08%5.08%
Fair Value$13.39$19.67$31.38
Upside / Downside537.40%836.84%1,394.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,027.114,191.484,362.554,540.604,725.924,918.805,066.36
Payout Ratio34.11%45.29%56.47%67.64%78.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,373.651,898.232,463.353,071.443,725.064,426.924,686.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.10%7.10%7.10%
Growth Rate3.08%4.08%5.08%
Year 1 PV (M)1,755.311,772.341,789.37
Year 2 PV (M)2,106.372,147.442,188.90
Year 3 PV (M)2,428.592,499.962,572.71
Year 4 PV (M)2,723.642,830.872,941.25
Year 5 PV (M)2,993.103,141.123,294.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)77,217.1381,035.9685,004.40
Equity Value (M)89,224.1493,427.6997,791.57
Shares Outstanding (M)6,168.666,168.666,168.66
Fair Value$14.46$15.15$15.85
Upside / Downside588.77%621.22%654.90%

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