Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $2,827.50 - $4,685.79 | $3,649.72 |
| Multi-Stage | $5,722.85 - $6,293.49 | $6,002.63 |
| Blended Fair Value | $4,826.17 | |
| Current Price | $2,560.00 | |
| Upside | 88.52% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -1.01% | -0.93% | 109.67 | 104.68 | 104.68 | 104.68 | 115.07 | 115.40 | 115.40 | 125.44 | 125.44 | 120.42 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 4.76% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -9.03% | -0.28% | 0.00% | -8.00% | 0.00% | 4.17% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.71% | 3.65% | 3.45% | 3.24% | 3.20% | 6.11% | 3.81% | 3.90% | 3.44% | 3.21% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 9,832.81 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 4,371.40 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 5,461.42 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,966.56 | 1,229.10 | 737.46 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 5,461.42 | 5,461.42 | 5,461.42 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,966.56 | -1,229.10 | -737.46 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 3,494.86 | 4,232.32 | 4,723.96 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 39.86 | 39.86 | 39.86 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 87.68 | 106.18 | 118.51 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 109.67 | 109.67 | 109.67 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 87.68 | 106.18 | 118.51 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 197.34 | 215.84 | 228.18 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.35% | 6.35% | 6.35% |
| Growth Rate | -0.59% | 0.41% | 1.41% |
| Fair Value | $2,827.50 | $3,649.72 | $4,685.79 |
| Upside / Downside | 10.45% | 42.57% | 83.04% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 9,832.81 | 9,873.17 | 9,913.69 | 9,954.38 | 9,995.24 | 10,036.26 | 10,337.35 |
| Payout Ratio | 44.46% | 53.57% | 62.67% | 71.78% | 80.89% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 4,371.40 | 5,288.64 | 6,213.34 | 7,145.54 | 8,085.29 | 9,032.63 | 9,562.05 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.35% | 6.35% | 6.35% |
| Growth Rate | -0.59% | 0.41% | 1.41% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 4,923.40 | 4,972.92 | 5,022.45 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 5,384.77 | 5,493.65 | 5,603.62 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 5,764.99 | 5,940.72 | 6,119.98 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 6,072.67 | 6,320.73 | 6,576.31 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 6,315.67 | 6,639.78 | 6,977.07 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 199,655.97 | 209,902.04 | 220,564.52 |
| Equity Value (M) | 228,117.46 | 239,269.85 | 250,863.95 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 39.86 | 39.86 | 39.86 |
| Fair Value | $5,722.85 | $6,002.63 | $6,293.49 |
| Upside / Downside | 123.55% | 134.48% | 145.84% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIGI | Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.77% | $1.48 | 22.19% |
| FUSB | First US Bancshares, Inc. | 1.76% | $0.25 | 26.72% |
| R | Ryder System, Inc. | 1.76% | $3.41 | 28.29% |
| RGA | Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated | 1.75% | $3.55 | 27.34% |
| TFG.AS | Tetragon Financial Group Limited | 1.75% | $0.30 | 3.32% |
| WFC | Wells Fargo & Company | 1.75% | $1.67 | 25.46% |
| HCKT | The Hackett Group, Inc. | 1.74% | $0.34 | 85.97% |
| LEG | Leggett & Platt, Incorporated | 1.74% | $0.19 | 11.94% |
| RPRX | Royalty Pharma plc | 1.74% | $0.67 | 49.36% |
| SFBC | Sound Financial Bancorp, Inc. | 1.74% | $0.76 | 37.96% |
| SXT | Sensient Technologies Corporation | 1.74% | $1.63 | 50.00% |
| MKTX | MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | 1.73% | $3.09 | 52.31% |
| PRG | PROG Holdings, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.51 | 12.57% |
| STEL | Stellar Bancorp, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.53 | 26.88% |
| UFCS | United Fire Group, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.62 | 14.63% |
| AMAL | Amalgamated Financial Corp. | 1.72% | $0.55 | 16.32% |
| BK | The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation | 1.72% | $2.01 | 27.06% |
| COWN | Cowen Inc. | 1.72% | $0.67 | 33.32% |
| DG | Dollar General Corporation | 1.72% | $2.35 | 40.66% |
| AMKR | Amkor Technology, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.73 | 59.04% |
| DTF | DTF Tax-Free Income 2028 Term Fund Inc. | 1.71% | $0.20 | 80.42% |
| ERIE | Erie Indemnity Company | 1.71% | $4.75 | 38.59% |
| FLXS | Flexsteel Industries, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.68 | 17.01% |
| MTCH | Match Group, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.54 | 25.07% |
| LBRT | Liberty Energy Inc. | 1.70% | $0.32 | 28.43% |
| OVBC | Ohio Valley Banc Corp. | 1.70% | $0.67 | 28.36% |
| WTFC | Wintrust Financial Corporation | 1.70% | $2.43 | 20.92% |
| BANF | BancFirst Corporation | 1.69% | $1.80 | 25.72% |
| BDL | Flanigan's Enterprises, Inc. | 1.69% | $0.50 | 21.50% |
| CDHAX | Calvert International Responsible Idx A | 1.69% | $0.64 | 41.92% |
| CINR | Sisecam Resources LP | 1.69% | $0.34 | 19.21% |
| EXPO | Exponent, Inc. | 1.69% | $1.18 | 58.07% |
| GD | General Dynamics Corporation | 1.69% | $5.80 | 37.41% |
| HQI | HireQuest, Inc. | 1.69% | $0.18 | 36.36% |
| OTF | Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. | 1.69% | $0.24 | 9.20% |
| PHIN | PHINIA Inc. | 1.68% | $1.09 | 47.78% |
| PTRS | Partners Bancorp | 1.68% | $0.12 | 13.62% |
| RNGR | Ranger Energy Services, Inc. | 1.67% | $0.24 | 34.90% |
| HQH | Abrdn Healthcare Investors | 1.66% | $0.31 | 6.95% |
| JILL | J.Jill, Inc. | 1.66% | $0.23 | 10.45% |
| PSH.AS | Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. | 1.65% | $0.85 | 6.48% |
| SKT | Tanger Inc. | 1.65% | $0.55 | 58.16% |
| USCB | USCB Financial Holdings, Inc. | 1.64% | $0.30 | 18.70% |
| BOTJ | Bank of the James Financial Group, Inc. | 1.62% | $0.30 | 26.41% |
| RS | Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | 1.62% | $4.78 | 34.66% |
| SCI | Service Corporation International | 1.62% | $1.25 | 33.57% |
| SMLP | Summit Midstream Partners, LP | 1.62% | $0.59 | 6.02% |
| TKR | The Timken Company | 1.62% | $1.40 | 32.90% |
| TRINL | Trinity Capital Inc. - 7.00% No | 1.62% | $0.41 | 20.50% |
| CARR | Carrier Global Corporation | 1.61% | $0.86 | 18.56% |