Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $83,455.04 - $112,780.62 | $98,466.07 |
| Multi-Stage | $266,124.48 - $295,422.01 | $280,460.88 |
| Blended Fair Value | $189,463.47 | |
| Current Price | $84,900.00 | |
| Upside | 123.16% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -11.62% | 5.29% | 4,207.41 | 7,087.17 | 10,428.50 | 7,825.69 | 5,764.83 | 7,803.46 | 10,435.94 | 9,426.14 | 6,598.30 | 4,974.19 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -40.63% | -32.04% | 33.26% | 35.75% | -26.12% | -25.23% | 10.71% | 42.86% | 32.65% | 97.97% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 8.77% | 11.85% | 15.43% | 9.11% | 6.48% | 12.77% | 13.82% | 7.69% | 4.87% | 3.45% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 324,576.91 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 66,652.81 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 257,924.09 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 64,915.38 | 40,572.11 | 24,343.27 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 257,924.09 | 257,924.09 | 257,924.09 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -64,915.38 | -40,572.11 | -24,343.27 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 193,008.71 | 217,351.98 | 233,580.83 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 17.65 | 17.65 | 17.65 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 10,937.20 | 12,316.65 | 13,236.29 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 3,777.01 | 3,777.01 | 3,777.01 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 10,937.20 | 12,316.65 | 13,236.29 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 14,714.20 | 16,093.66 | 17,013.30 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | -9.59% | -8.59% | -7.59% |
| Fair Value | $83,455.04 | $98,466.07 | $112,780.62 |
| Upside / Downside | -1.70% | 15.98% | 32.84% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 324,576.91 | 296,679.74 | 271,180.32 | 247,872.55 | 226,568.07 | 207,094.70 | 213,307.54 |
| Payout Ratio | 20.54% | 34.43% | 48.32% | 62.21% | 76.11% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 66,652.81 | 102,141.59 | 131,037.51 | 154,211.72 | 172,434.30 | 186,385.23 | 197,309.48 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | -9.59% | -8.59% | -7.59% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 94,996.91 | 96,047.70 | 97,098.49 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 113,346.82 | 115,868.22 | 118,417.36 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 124,061.76 | 128,224.33 | 132,478.98 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 129,018.22 | 134,822.09 | 140,819.60 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 129,701.73 | 137,035.55 | 144,697.43 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 4,105,173.19 | 4,337,295.17 | 4,579,800.42 |
| Equity Value (M) | 4,696,298.63 | 4,949,293.07 | 5,213,312.30 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 17.65 | 17.65 | 17.65 |
| Fair Value | $266,124.48 | $280,460.88 | $295,422.01 |
| Upside / Downside | 213.46% | 230.34% | 247.96% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIGI | Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.77% | $1.48 | 22.19% |
| FUSB | First US Bancshares, Inc. | 1.76% | $0.25 | 26.72% |
| R | Ryder System, Inc. | 1.76% | $3.41 | 28.29% |
| RGA | Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated | 1.75% | $3.55 | 27.34% |
| TFG.AS | Tetragon Financial Group Limited | 1.75% | $0.30 | 3.32% |
| WFC | Wells Fargo & Company | 1.75% | $1.67 | 25.46% |
| HCKT | The Hackett Group, Inc. | 1.74% | $0.34 | 85.97% |
| LEG | Leggett & Platt, Incorporated | 1.74% | $0.19 | 11.94% |
| RPRX | Royalty Pharma plc | 1.74% | $0.67 | 49.36% |
| SFBC | Sound Financial Bancorp, Inc. | 1.74% | $0.76 | 37.96% |
| SXT | Sensient Technologies Corporation | 1.74% | $1.63 | 50.00% |
| MKTX | MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | 1.73% | $3.09 | 52.31% |
| PRG | PROG Holdings, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.51 | 12.57% |
| STEL | Stellar Bancorp, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.53 | 26.88% |
| UFCS | United Fire Group, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.62 | 14.63% |
| AMAL | Amalgamated Financial Corp. | 1.72% | $0.55 | 16.32% |
| BK | The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation | 1.72% | $2.01 | 27.06% |
| COWN | Cowen Inc. | 1.72% | $0.67 | 33.32% |
| DG | Dollar General Corporation | 1.72% | $2.35 | 40.66% |
| AMKR | Amkor Technology, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.73 | 59.04% |
| DTF | DTF Tax-Free Income 2028 Term Fund Inc. | 1.71% | $0.20 | 80.42% |
| ERIE | Erie Indemnity Company | 1.71% | $4.75 | 38.59% |
| FLXS | Flexsteel Industries, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.68 | 17.01% |
| MTCH | Match Group, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.54 | 25.07% |
| LBRT | Liberty Energy Inc. | 1.70% | $0.32 | 28.43% |
| OVBC | Ohio Valley Banc Corp. | 1.70% | $0.67 | 28.36% |
| WTFC | Wintrust Financial Corporation | 1.70% | $2.43 | 20.92% |
| BANF | BancFirst Corporation | 1.69% | $1.80 | 25.72% |
| BDL | Flanigan's Enterprises, Inc. | 1.69% | $0.50 | 21.50% |
| CDHAX | Calvert International Responsible Idx A | 1.69% | $0.64 | 41.92% |
| CINR | Sisecam Resources LP | 1.69% | $0.34 | 19.21% |
| EXPO | Exponent, Inc. | 1.69% | $1.18 | 58.07% |
| GD | General Dynamics Corporation | 1.69% | $5.80 | 37.41% |
| HQI | HireQuest, Inc. | 1.69% | $0.18 | 36.36% |
| OTF | Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. | 1.69% | $0.24 | 9.20% |
| PHIN | PHINIA Inc. | 1.68% | $1.09 | 47.78% |
| PTRS | Partners Bancorp | 1.68% | $0.12 | 13.62% |
| RNGR | Ranger Energy Services, Inc. | 1.67% | $0.24 | 34.90% |
| HQH | Abrdn Healthcare Investors | 1.66% | $0.31 | 6.95% |
| JILL | J.Jill, Inc. | 1.66% | $0.23 | 10.45% |
| PSH.AS | Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. | 1.65% | $0.85 | 6.48% |
| SKT | Tanger Inc. | 1.65% | $0.55 | 58.16% |
| USCB | USCB Financial Holdings, Inc. | 1.64% | $0.30 | 18.70% |
| BOTJ | Bank of the James Financial Group, Inc. | 1.62% | $0.30 | 26.41% |
| RS | Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | 1.62% | $4.78 | 34.66% |
| SCI | Service Corporation International | 1.62% | $1.25 | 33.57% |
| SMLP | Summit Midstream Partners, LP | 1.62% | $0.59 | 6.02% |
| TKR | The Timken Company | 1.62% | $1.40 | 32.90% |
| TRINL | Trinity Capital Inc. - 7.00% No | 1.62% | $0.41 | 20.50% |
| CARR | Carrier Global Corporation | 1.61% | $0.86 | 18.56% |