Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sonae, SGPS, S.A. (YSON.F)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.34 - $2.10$1.69
Multi-Stage$3.24 - $3.57$3.40
Blended Fair Value$2.55
Current Price$1.33
Upside91.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-12.26%0.00%0.080.080.050.050.090.160.070.040.000.00
YoY Growth---0.63%64.79%2.11%-45.23%-43.23%113.53%81.53%2,866.43%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.71%9.44%4.94%4.79%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)272.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)164.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)108.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.6034.1220.47
Cash Retained (M)108.12108.12108.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.60-34.12-20.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)53.5273.9987.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,946.951,946.951,946.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.34$1.69$2.10
Upside / Downside1.05%27.21%57.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)272.99270.26267.56264.88262.23259.61267.40
Payout Ratio60.40%66.32%72.24%78.16%84.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)164.87179.23193.28207.03220.48233.65247.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)167.09168.80170.50
Year 2 PV (M)167.99171.44174.92
Year 3 PV (M)167.76172.95178.24
Year 4 PV (M)166.56173.47180.58
Year 5 PV (M)164.56173.13182.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,479.525,764.856,061.95
Equity Value (M)6,313.496,624.636,948.24
Shares Outstanding (M)1,946.951,946.951,946.95
Fair Value$3.24$3.40$3.57
Upside / Downside143.82%155.83%168.33%

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