Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWSB.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.38 - $12.78$10.44
Multi-Stage$10.89 - $11.95$11.41
Blended Fair Value$10.92
Current Price$16.15
Upside-32.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.050.220.210.190.240.270.200.11
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-78.13%8.93%6.34%-21.27%-10.07%38.31%73.28%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.18%0.83%0.59%1.27%1.58%2.35%1.30%0.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)937.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)74.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)862.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)187.40117.1370.28
Cash Retained (M)862.99862.99862.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-187.40-117.13-70.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)675.59745.87792.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,020.471,020.471,020.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.660.730.78
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.660.730.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.730.800.85
WACC / Discount Rate9.43%9.43%9.43%
Growth Rate0.61%1.61%2.61%
Fair Value$8.38$10.44$12.78
Upside / Downside-48.11%-35.35%-20.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)937.00952.13967.51983.13999.001,015.141,045.59
Payout Ratio7.90%24.32%40.74%57.16%73.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)74.01231.55394.15561.95735.06913.62967.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.43%9.43%9.43%
Growth Rate0.61%1.61%2.61%
Year 1 PV (M)209.50211.59213.67
Year 2 PV (M)322.68329.12335.63
Year 3 PV (M)416.25428.78441.57
Year 4 PV (M)492.64512.52532.99
Year 5 PV (M)554.02582.10611.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,114.919,576.9710,057.57
Equity Value (M)11,110.0011,641.0812,192.75
Shares Outstanding (M)1,020.471,020.471,020.47
Fair Value$10.89$11.41$11.95
Upside / Downside-32.59%-29.36%-26.02%

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