Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Vesuvius plc (VSVS.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.02 - $11.23$8.93
Multi-Stage$10.71 - $11.72$11.21
Blended Fair Value$10.07
Current Price$3.92
Upside156.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.54%4.02%0.230.230.220.210.030.210.190.170.170.17
YoY Growth--0.66%4.48%4.68%560.71%-84.42%7.80%9.65%3.87%0.00%6.55%
Dividend Yield--5.50%4.80%5.47%4.69%0.60%4.10%3.75%2.97%4.23%5.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)174.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)119.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)54.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.8621.7913.07
Cash Retained (M)54.5054.5054.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.86-21.79-13.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.6432.7141.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)262.73262.73262.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.120.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.120.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate8.14%8.14%8.14%
Growth Rate0.54%1.54%2.54%
Fair Value$7.02$8.93$11.23
Upside / Downside79.08%127.79%186.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)174.30176.98179.71182.47185.28188.13193.78
Payout Ratio68.73%72.99%77.24%81.49%85.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)119.80129.17138.80148.70158.87169.32179.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.14%8.14%8.14%
Growth Rate0.54%1.54%2.54%
Year 1 PV (M)118.27119.45120.63
Year 2 PV (M)116.37118.69121.04
Year 3 PV (M)114.15117.59121.09
Year 4 PV (M)111.66116.17120.82
Year 5 PV (M)108.96114.49120.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,243.982,357.822,476.23
Equity Value (M)2,813.392,944.213,080.05
Shares Outstanding (M)262.73262.73262.73
Fair Value$10.71$11.21$11.72
Upside / Downside173.17%185.87%199.06%

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