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Vistra Corp. (VST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$66.11 - $144.75$94.91
Multi-Stage$48.26 - $52.68$50.43
Blended Fair Value$72.67
Current Price$195.92
Upside-62.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.65%0.00%0.900.920.890.850.780.720.000.002.920.00
YoY Growth---2.56%3.64%4.14%9.02%9.47%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.76%1.29%3.70%3.67%4.43%4.48%0.00%0.00%17.92%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,152.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)304.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)848.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)230.40144.0086.40
Cash Retained (M)848.00848.00848.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-230.40-144.00-86.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)617.60704.00761.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)339.69339.69339.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.822.072.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.890.890.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.822.072.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.712.973.14
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$66.11$94.91$144.75
Upside / Downside-66.26%-51.56%-26.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,152.001,226.881,306.631,391.561,482.011,578.341,625.69
Payout Ratio26.39%39.11%51.83%64.56%77.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)304.00479.85677.27898.331,145.261,420.511,503.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)432.80436.90441.00
Year 2 PV (M)550.97561.46572.06
Year 3 PV (M)659.15678.07697.35
Year 4 PV (M)757.95787.09817.07
Year 5 PV (M)847.93888.88931.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,142.9813,777.7914,436.89
Equity Value (M)16,391.7717,130.2017,895.79
Shares Outstanding (M)339.69339.69339.69
Fair Value$48.26$50.43$52.68
Upside / Downside-75.37%-74.26%-73.11%

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