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Definitive Analysis

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United Overseas Insurance Limited (U13.SI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.99 - $2.72$2.36
Multi-Stage$5.43 - $6.00$5.71
Blended Fair Value$4.04
Current Price$7.90
Upside-48.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.32%3.42%0.210.210.250.210.170.170.230.150.150.15
YoY Growth--0.00%-16.00%19.05%23.53%0.00%-24.45%49.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.68%3.50%3.91%3.05%2.36%2.62%3.13%1.96%2.83%3.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)24.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)12.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.853.031.82
Cash Retained (M)12.6312.6312.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.85-3.03-1.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.789.6010.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)61.1661.1661.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.160.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.160.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate-7.71%-6.71%-5.71%
Fair Value$1.99$2.36$2.72
Upside / Downside-74.80%-70.11%-65.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)24.2522.6221.1119.6918.3717.1317.65
Payout Ratio47.92%56.33%64.75%73.17%81.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.6212.7413.6714.4114.9815.4216.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate-7.71%-6.71%-5.71%
Year 1 PV (M)11.7811.9112.04
Year 2 PV (M)11.6811.9412.19
Year 3 PV (M)11.3911.7612.14
Year 4 PV (M)10.9511.4311.93
Year 5 PV (M)10.4211.0011.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)275.99291.27307.22
Equity Value (M)332.21349.31367.12
Shares Outstanding (M)61.1661.1661.16
Fair Value$5.43$5.71$6.00
Upside / Downside-31.24%-27.70%-24.01%

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