Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Toscana Aeroporti S.p.A. (TYA.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.96 - $38.35$25.56
Multi-Stage$21.31 - $23.36$22.32
Blended Fair Value$23.94
Current Price$16.50
Upside45.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.94%23.46%0.390.390.380.000.000.700.540.500.430.37
YoY Growth--0.00%4.29%0.00%0.00%-100.00%30.37%6.66%18.12%16.13%670.01%
Dividend Yield--2.47%3.26%3.14%0.00%0.00%5.95%3.49%3.33%2.81%2.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.632.271.36
Cash Retained (M)10.3710.3710.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.63-2.27-1.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.748.109.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.5618.5618.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.440.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.440.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate2.65%3.65%4.65%
Fair Value$17.96$25.56$38.35
Upside / Downside8.85%54.90%132.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18.1318.7919.4720.1820.9221.6822.33
Payout Ratio42.81%52.25%61.69%71.13%80.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.769.8212.0114.3516.8519.5120.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate2.65%3.65%4.65%
Year 1 PV (M)9.089.169.25
Year 2 PV (M)10.2710.4710.67
Year 3 PV (M)11.3511.6812.02
Year 4 PV (M)12.3212.8013.30
Year 5 PV (M)13.1813.8414.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)339.38356.24373.76
Equity Value (M)395.57414.20433.53
Shares Outstanding (M)18.5618.5618.56
Fair Value$21.31$22.32$23.36
Upside / Downside29.18%35.26%41.57%

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