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Definitive Analysis

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Tharisa plc (THA.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Other Precious MetalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.54 - $16.22$10.76
Multi-Stage$5.52 - $6.03$5.77
Blended Fair Value$8.26
Current Price$1.39
Upside494.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS82.15%0.00%0.040.030.070.080.070.000.020.060.010.00
YoY Growth--27.63%-50.07%-9.16%14.49%2,925.64%-89.88%-63.80%608.72%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.16%3.30%7.56%6.65%4.83%0.25%1.56%4.90%0.59%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)120.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)92.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.0915.069.03
Cash Retained (M)92.0692.0692.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.09-15.06-9.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)67.9777.0183.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)304.91304.91304.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.250.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.250.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.54$10.76$16.22
Upside / Downside442.41%673.87%1,066.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)120.45128.28136.62145.50154.96165.03169.98
Payout Ratio23.57%36.86%50.14%63.43%76.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.3947.2868.5092.29118.88148.53157.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)42.6143.0143.42
Year 2 PV (M)55.6456.7057.77
Year 3 PV (M)67.5569.4971.46
Year 4 PV (M)78.4181.4284.53
Year 5 PV (M)88.2992.5596.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,350.151,415.361,483.07
Equity Value (M)1,682.641,758.531,837.22
Shares Outstanding (M)304.91304.91304.91
Fair Value$5.52$5.77$6.03
Upside / Downside297.01%314.92%333.48%

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