Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sermsuk Public Company Limited (SSC.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Non-AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$82.13 - $302.50$251.68
Multi-Stage$38.04 - $41.62$39.80
Blended Fair Value$145.74
Current Price$62.50
Upside133.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS221.06%103.08%0.520.340.340.320.250.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--52.90%-0.01%6.27%27.96%16,311.26%0.00%-100.00%-97.30%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.83%1.01%0.97%1.06%0.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)404.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)138.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)266.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.8950.5630.33
Cash Retained (M)266.27266.27266.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.89-50.56-30.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)185.37215.71235.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)265.90265.90265.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.700.810.89
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.700.810.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.221.331.41
WACC / Discount Rate7.06%7.06%7.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$82.13$251.68$302.50
Upside / Downside31.40%302.68%384.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)404.45430.74458.74488.56520.32554.14570.76
Payout Ratio34.17%45.33%56.50%67.67%78.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)138.19195.27259.19330.59410.18498.72527.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.06%7.06%7.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)180.68182.39184.10
Year 2 PV (M)221.89226.12230.38
Year 3 PV (M)261.87269.38277.04
Year 4 PV (M)300.63312.19324.08
Year 5 PV (M)338.20354.53371.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,811.319,236.909,678.78
Equity Value (M)10,114.5710,581.5111,065.88
Shares Outstanding (M)265.90265.90265.90
Fair Value$38.04$39.80$41.62
Upside / Downside-39.14%-36.33%-33.41%

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