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Definitive Analysis

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Spar Nord Bank A/S (SPNO.CO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$330.44 - $700.76$469.08
Multi-Stage$235.48 - $257.51$246.30
Blended Fair Value$357.69
Current Price$208.50
Upside71.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.18%25.03%10.104.665.301.590.423.713.715.303.231.73
YoY Growth--116.85%-12.20%234.24%275.51%-88.60%0.00%-30.08%64.00%86.75%60.13%
Dividend Yield--4.84%3.94%4.90%1.78%0.62%8.88%6.16%7.48%4.19%2.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,043.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,042.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)408.60255.38153.23
Cash Retained (M)2,042.002,042.002,042.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-408.60-255.38-153.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,633.401,786.631,888.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)115.96115.96115.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share14.0915.4116.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share14.0915.4116.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.0915.4216.30
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$330.44$469.08$700.76
Upside / Downside58.48%124.98%236.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,043.002,175.802,317.222,467.842,628.252,799.092,883.06
Payout Ratio0.05%18.04%36.03%54.02%72.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.00392.50834.881,333.121,892.602,519.182,666.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)353.46356.81360.16
Year 2 PV (M)677.09689.98703.00
Year 3 PV (M)973.641,001.591,030.07
Year 4 PV (M)1,244.801,292.671,341.91
Year 5 PV (M)1,492.141,564.211,639.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,565.6723,655.6024,787.24
Equity Value (M)27,306.8028,560.8729,861.43
Shares Outstanding (M)115.96115.96115.96
Fair Value$235.48$246.30$257.51
Upside / Downside12.94%18.13%23.51%

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