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Definitive Analysis

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SMU S.A. (SMU.SN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$246.74 - $601.07$367.29
Multi-Stage$328.41 - $360.35$344.07
Blended Fair Value$355.68
Current Price$160.52
Upside121.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS39.57%0.00%9.0810.8616.899.964.501.710.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---16.46%-35.69%69.58%121.14%162.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.16%6.39%11.59%11.07%3.82%1.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)67,334.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31,642.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)35,692.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13,466.988,416.865,050.12
Cash Retained (M)35,692.8735,692.8735,692.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-13,466.98-8,416.86-5,050.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)22,225.8927,276.0130,642.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,763.215,763.215,763.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.864.735.32
LTM Dividend per Share5.495.495.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.864.735.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.3510.2210.81
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate2.30%3.30%4.30%
Fair Value$246.74$367.29$601.07
Upside / Downside53.71%128.81%274.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)67,334.8969,560.1371,858.9174,233.6776,686.9079,221.2181,597.84
Payout Ratio46.99%55.59%64.20%72.80%81.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31,642.0238,670.9946,129.9854,039.7462,421.9171,299.0975,478.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate2.30%3.30%4.30%
Year 1 PV (M)36,067.6136,420.1636,772.71
Year 2 PV (M)40,128.0040,916.3241,712.30
Year 3 PV (M)43,843.9545,142.2546,465.92
Year 4 PV (M)47,235.1949,109.2951,038.61
Year 5 PV (M)50,320.4852,828.3755,435.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,675,071.021,758,553.921,845,332.66
Equity Value (M)1,892,666.271,982,970.322,076,757.49
Shares Outstanding (M)5,763.215,763.215,763.21
Fair Value$328.41$344.07$360.35
Upside / Downside104.59%114.35%124.49%

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