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Definitive Analysis

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São Martinho S.A. (SMTO3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food ConfectionersSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$245.37 - $301.24$282.30
Multi-Stage$51.39 - $56.30$53.80
Blended Fair Value$168.05
Current Price$17.36
Upside868.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS12.11%25.19%1.231.231.132.440.570.690.540.300.170.20
YoY Growth---0.19%8.60%-53.46%330.43%-18.43%27.78%80.00%80.56%-18.48%57.67%
Dividend Yield--6.99%3.61%3.32%6.70%1.57%3.27%2.73%1.69%0.97%1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)502.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)128.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)373.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)100.4462.7837.67
Cash Retained (M)373.60373.60373.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-100.44-62.78-37.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)273.15310.82335.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)331.55331.55331.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.820.941.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.820.941.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.211.331.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$245.37$282.30$301.24
Upside / Downside1,313.44%1,526.17%1,635.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)502.21534.85569.62606.64646.07688.07708.71
Payout Ratio25.61%38.49%51.37%64.24%77.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)128.61205.85292.59389.73498.26619.26655.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)192.34194.16195.98
Year 2 PV (M)255.43260.30265.21
Year 3 PV (M)317.90327.03336.33
Year 4 PV (M)379.75394.36409.38
Year 5 PV (M)440.99462.29484.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,453.0016,199.3916,974.34
Equity Value (M)17,039.4217,837.5218,665.65
Shares Outstanding (M)331.55331.55331.55
Fair Value$51.39$53.80$56.30
Upside / Downside196.04%209.91%224.29%

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