Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) Tbk (SMBR.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$249.62 - $398.56$317.21
Multi-Stage$499.72 - $550.47$524.60
Blended Fair Value$420.90
Current Price$278.00
Upside51.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.09%-11.01%2.451.910.000.000.621.913.696.528.918.26
YoY Growth--28.20%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-67.54%-48.25%-43.40%-26.85%7.86%5.17%
Dividend Yield--1.44%0.79%0.00%0.00%0.08%0.97%0.28%0.16%0.26%2.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)239,953.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25,850.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)214,102.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47,990.7229,994.2017,996.52
Cash Retained (M)214,102.79214,102.79214,102.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-47,990.72-29,994.20-17,996.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)166,112.07184,108.59196,106.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,932.539,932.539,932.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share16.7218.5419.74
LTM Dividend per Share2.602.602.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share16.7218.5419.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend19.3321.1422.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.56%6.56%6.56%
Growth Rate-1.10%-0.10%0.90%
Fair Value$249.62$317.21$398.56
Upside / Downside-10.21%14.11%43.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)239,953.60239,718.80239,484.24239,249.91239,015.81238,781.94245,945.40
Payout Ratio10.77%26.62%42.46%58.31%74.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25,850.8163,809.80101,694.47139,504.95177,241.34214,903.75227,499.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.56%6.56%6.56%
Growth Rate-1.10%-0.10%0.90%
Year 1 PV (M)59,282.4659,881.8760,481.27
Year 2 PV (M)87,775.8689,559.8391,361.76
Year 3 PV (M)111,868.09115,295.81118,792.84
Year 4 PV (M)132,044.55137,466.50143,053.74
Year 5 PV (M)148,743.60156,416.95164,403.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,423,743.094,651,953.964,889,487.43
Equity Value (M)4,963,457.655,210,574.925,467,580.81
Shares Outstanding (M)9,932.539,932.539,932.53
Fair Value$499.72$524.60$550.47
Upside / Downside79.75%88.70%98.01%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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