Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (SAPR11.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$226.71 - $267.10$250.31
Multi-Stage$78.87 - $86.51$82.62
Blended Fair Value$166.47
Current Price$7.25
Upside2,196.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.43%11.98%0.250.240.190.170.190.250.190.180.120.12
YoY Growth--4.55%24.63%15.61%-11.88%-23.05%32.24%6.08%42.39%3.28%47.17%
Dividend Yield--4.72%4.96%6.05%5.05%5.63%6.97%5.79%7.51%5.51%16.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,131.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)412.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,718.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)426.22266.39159.83
Cash Retained (M)1,718.381,718.381,718.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-426.22-266.39-159.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,292.151,451.991,558.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,586.771,586.771,586.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.810.920.98
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.810.920.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.071.181.24
WACC / Discount Rate4.77%4.77%4.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$226.71$250.31$267.10
Upside / Downside3,027.00%3,352.57%3,584.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,131.112,269.632,417.162,574.282,741.602,919.813,007.40
Payout Ratio19.37%33.49%47.62%61.75%75.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)412.74760.181,151.061,589.532,080.152,627.832,781.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.77%4.77%4.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)718.73725.54732.35
Year 2 PV (M)1,028.941,048.541,068.32
Year 3 PV (M)1,343.411,381.971,421.27
Year 4 PV (M)1,662.181,726.101,791.85
Year 5 PV (M)1,985.302,081.192,180.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)118,413.55124,132.97130,071.28
Equity Value (M)125,152.10131,096.31137,265.82
Shares Outstanding (M)1,586.771,586.771,586.77
Fair Value$78.87$82.62$86.51
Upside / Downside987.90%1,039.57%1,093.19%

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