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Definitive Analysis

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Stingray Group Inc. (RAY-A.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BroadcastingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.66 - $37.17$23.11
Multi-Stage$18.34 - $20.11$19.21
Blended Fair Value$21.16
Current Price$10.08
Upside109.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-0.70%0.22%0.300.300.300.310.320.310.230.160.120.07
YoY Growth---1.12%-0.76%-1.76%-3.25%3.53%32.55%48.39%31.50%69.83%-75.91%
Dividend Yield--2.96%4.07%5.91%5.00%3.96%5.87%3.70%1.81%1.52%1.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)51.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.386.493.89
Cash Retained (M)31.4931.4931.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.38-6.49-3.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.1125.0027.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)68.5568.5568.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.360.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.360.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.610.660.70
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate2.75%3.75%4.75%
Fair Value$15.66$23.11$37.17
Upside / Downside55.36%129.30%268.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)51.8953.8355.8657.9560.1362.3864.26
Payout Ratio39.32%49.45%59.59%69.73%79.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.4026.6233.2840.4148.0256.1559.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate2.75%3.75%4.75%
Year 1 PV (M)24.7024.9425.19
Year 2 PV (M)28.6629.2229.79
Year 3 PV (M)32.2933.2434.21
Year 4 PV (M)35.6037.0138.46
Year 5 PV (M)38.6340.5542.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,097.401,151.851,208.44
Equity Value (M)1,257.281,316.811,378.62
Shares Outstanding (M)68.5568.5568.55
Fair Value$18.34$19.21$20.11
Upside / Downside81.94%90.56%99.50%

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