Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Pakuwon Jati Tbk (PWON.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$692.91 - $1,313.33$943.63
Multi-Stage$705.89 - $774.07$739.34
Blended Fair Value$841.48
Current Price$376.00
Upside123.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.16%7.18%8.986.493.990.000.006.995.994.494.494.49
YoY Growth--38.42%62.56%0.00%-100.00%-100.00%16.66%33.29%0.04%0.01%-0.04%
Dividend Yield--2.64%1.52%0.88%0.00%0.00%2.27%0.82%0.71%0.73%0.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,138,736.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17,251.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,121,484.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)427,747.25267,342.03160,405.22
Cash Retained (M)2,121,484.702,121,484.702,121,484.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-427,747.25-267,342.03-160,405.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,693,737.441,854,142.661,961,079.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)48,159.6048,159.6048,159.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share35.1738.5040.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share35.1738.5040.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend35.5338.8641.08
WACC / Discount Rate8.44%8.44%8.44%
Growth Rate3.16%4.16%5.16%
Fair Value$692.91$943.63$1,313.33
Upside / Downside84.28%150.96%249.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,138,736.272,227,610.312,320,177.462,416,591.202,517,011.352,621,604.412,700,252.54
Payout Ratio0.81%18.65%36.48%54.32%72.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17,251.58415,344.62846,492.961,312,756.371,816,308.742,359,443.972,497,733.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.44%8.44%8.44%
Growth Rate3.16%4.16%5.16%
Year 1 PV (M)379,324.73383,001.94386,679.16
Year 2 PV (M)706,038.67719,793.85733,681.73
Year 3 PV (M)999,981.201,029,345.811,059,279.73
Year 4 PV (M)1,263,571.851,313,285.741,364,452.35
Year 5 PV (M)1,499,072.041,573,155.351,650,139.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,147,368.3530,587,815.2632,084,656.37
Equity Value (M)33,995,356.8435,606,397.9637,278,888.41
Shares Outstanding (M)48,159.6048,159.6048,159.60
Fair Value$705.89$739.34$774.07
Upside / Downside87.74%96.63%105.87%

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