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Definitive Analysis

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Polar Capital Global Healthcare Trust plc (PCGH.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset Management - GlobalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.19 - $1.69$1.44
Multi-Stage$1.78 - $1.95$1.86
Blended Fair Value$1.65
Current Price$3.31
Upside-50.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.56%-3.38%0.020.020.020.020.020.020.020.030.040.04
YoY Growth--14.25%4.99%0.00%-4.75%4.26%-0.41%-35.36%-20.34%9.32%6.14%
Dividend Yield--0.64%0.66%0.64%0.69%0.90%0.92%0.91%1.58%2.01%2.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.432.771.66
Cash Retained (M)18.0518.0518.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.43-2.77-1.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.6215.2816.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)121.27121.27121.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.19$1.44$1.69
Upside / Downside-63.90%-56.48%-48.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22.1721.9521.7321.5221.3021.0921.72
Payout Ratio18.59%32.88%47.16%61.44%75.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.127.2210.2513.2216.1318.9820.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)6.496.566.63
Year 2 PV (M)8.308.478.64
Year 3 PV (M)9.639.9310.24
Year 4 PV (M)10.5811.0211.47
Year 5 PV (M)11.2011.7912.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)169.51178.33187.52
Equity Value (M)215.72226.10236.89
Shares Outstanding (M)121.27121.27121.27
Fair Value$1.78$1.86$1.95
Upside / Downside-46.26%-43.67%-40.98%

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