Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

OZ Minerals Limited (OZL.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.53 - $70.21$34.93
Multi-Stage$20.45 - $22.39$21.41
Blended Fair Value$28.17
Current Price$27.90
Upside0.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS5.65%-4.50%0.250.250.230.230.210.190.190.090.160.28
YoY Growth---2.72%10.38%-1.48%9.91%13.23%-1.49%110.42%-42.40%-45.05%-26.97%
Dividend Yield--0.88%0.89%1.21%2.20%2.40%2.03%2.40%2.22%4.48%9.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)260.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)145.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)115.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.1032.5619.54
Cash Retained (M)115.23115.23115.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.10-32.56-19.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)63.1382.6795.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)320.37320.37320.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.260.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.260.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate3.65%4.65%5.65%
Fair Value$21.53$34.93$70.21
Upside / Downside-22.84%25.18%151.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)260.48272.60285.29298.57312.47327.01336.82
Payout Ratio55.76%62.61%69.46%76.31%83.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)145.25170.68198.16227.82259.82294.31311.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate3.65%4.65%5.65%
Year 1 PV (M)158.30159.83161.36
Year 2 PV (M)170.46173.77177.11
Year 3 PV (M)181.78187.09192.50
Year 4 PV (M)192.28199.81207.55
Year 5 PV (M)202.01211.94222.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,647.485,925.206,213.75
Equity Value (M)6,552.316,857.647,174.54
Shares Outstanding (M)320.37320.37320.37
Fair Value$20.45$21.41$22.39
Upside / Downside-26.69%-23.28%-19.73%

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