Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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M.P. Evans Group PLC (MPE.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$62.15 - $134.35$88.82
Multi-Stage$46.31 - $50.52$48.38
Blended Fair Value$68.60
Current Price$15.52
Upside342.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.20%19.46%0.610.530.540.390.230.230.240.380.180.10
YoY Growth--14.73%-1.09%38.84%69.57%-2.09%-2.84%-36.36%103.99%88.21%-4.65%
Dividend Yield--4.88%5.56%5.46%3.41%2.52%2.41%2.76%3.61%2.35%1.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)172.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)66.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)105.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.4821.5512.93
Cash Retained (M)105.50105.50105.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.48-21.55-12.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)71.0283.9592.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)53.2753.2753.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.331.581.74
LTM Dividend per Share1.261.261.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.331.581.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.592.832.99
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$62.15$88.82$134.35
Upside / Downside300.42%472.32%765.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)172.41183.61195.55208.26221.79236.21243.30
Payout Ratio38.81%49.04%59.28%69.52%79.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)66.9090.05115.93144.79176.91212.59225.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)81.1781.9482.71
Year 2 PV (M)94.2095.9997.80
Year 3 PV (M)106.05109.09112.19
Year 4 PV (M)116.80121.29125.91
Year 5 PV (M)126.52132.63138.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,942.382,036.202,133.61
Equity Value (M)2,467.112,577.142,691.20
Shares Outstanding (M)53.2753.2753.27
Fair Value$46.31$48.38$50.52
Upside / Downside198.41%211.72%225.51%

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