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Moog Inc. (MOG-A)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$119.18 - $230.88$163.66
Multi-Stage$107.91 - $118.12$112.92
Blended Fair Value$138.29
Current Price$204.64
Upside-32.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.64%0.00%1.131.101.061.031.000.781.080.560.000.00
YoY Growth--2.69%4.11%3.35%2.69%27.35%-27.68%94.85%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.55%0.56%0.73%1.17%1.23%0.99%1.27%0.72%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)235.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)207.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47.0129.3817.63
Cash Retained (M)207.78207.78207.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-47.01-29.38-17.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)160.78178.40190.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)32.1332.1332.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.005.555.92
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.005.555.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.856.406.77
WACC / Discount Rate9.11%9.11%9.11%
Growth Rate4.00%5.00%6.00%
Fair Value$119.18$163.66$230.88
Upside / Downside-41.76%-20.03%12.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)235.03246.79259.13272.09285.70300.00309.00
Payout Ratio11.59%27.27%42.96%58.64%74.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.2567.31111.31159.55212.33270.00285.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.11%9.11%9.11%
Growth Rate4.00%5.00%6.00%
Year 1 PV (M)61.1061.6962.28
Year 2 PV (M)91.7393.5095.29
Year 3 PV (M)119.35122.83126.37
Year 4 PV (M)144.19149.82155.61
Year 5 PV (M)166.45174.60183.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,884.233,025.583,172.43
Equity Value (M)3,467.063,628.033,795.06
Shares Outstanding (M)32.1332.1332.13
Fair Value$107.91$112.92$118.12
Upside / Downside-47.27%-44.82%-42.28%

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