Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Multi Indocitra Tbk (MICE.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,019.74 - $1,800.48$1,350.73
Multi-Stage$1,773.52 - $1,951.13$1,860.61
Blended Fair Value$1,605.67
Current Price$478.00
Upside235.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.12%-0.08%10.005.0015.004.005.0010.0610.0610.060.0010.08
YoY Growth--100.00%-66.67%275.00%-20.00%-50.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.33%0.98%1.81%1.06%1.72%3.05%2.40%2.89%0.00%2.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)45,256.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,919.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)39,337.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,051.225,657.013,394.21
Cash Retained (M)39,337.0539,337.0539,337.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,051.22-5,657.01-3,394.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)30,285.8333,680.0435,942.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)591.90591.90591.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share51.1756.9060.72
LTM Dividend per Share10.0010.0010.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share51.1756.9060.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend61.1766.9070.72
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate0.40%1.40%2.40%
Fair Value$1,019.74$1,350.73$1,800.48
Upside / Downside113.34%182.58%276.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)45,256.0945,891.7346,536.2947,189.9147,852.7048,524.8149,980.55
Payout Ratio13.08%28.46%43.85%59.23%74.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,919.0413,062.2520,404.9527,951.3335,705.6843,672.3346,232.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate0.40%1.40%2.40%
Year 1 PV (M)12,152.4012,273.4312,394.46
Year 2 PV (M)17,661.3318,014.8818,371.94
Year 3 PV (M)22,507.8623,187.1023,879.86
Year 4 PV (M)26,749.3327,831.0228,945.19
Year 5 PV (M)30,438.6931,984.9833,593.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)940,245.72988,010.611,037,697.26
Equity Value (M)1,049,755.321,101,302.031,154,882.21
Shares Outstanding (M)591.90591.90591.90
Fair Value$1,773.52$1,860.61$1,951.13
Upside / Downside271.03%289.25%308.19%

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