Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Major Cineplex Group Public Company Limited (MAJOR-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.22 - $4.40$3.82
Multi-Stage$9.23 - $10.22$9.71
Blended Fair Value$6.77
Current Price$8.50
Upside-20.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-36.54%-17.85%0.150.830.661.110.391.491.381.401.321.21
YoY Growth---81.47%25.00%-40.00%185.72%-74.08%8.03%-0.96%5.33%9.36%10.39%
Dividend Yield--1.48%5.80%3.93%5.53%1.73%11.06%4.94%4.90%3.90%4.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)529.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)151.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)377.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)105.8966.1839.71
Cash Retained (M)377.88377.88377.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-105.89-66.18-39.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)271.99311.70338.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)809.14809.14809.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate-8.20%-7.20%-6.20%
Fair Value$3.22$3.82$4.40
Upside / Downside-62.10%-55.08%-48.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)529.44491.31455.92423.09392.61364.34375.27
Payout Ratio28.63%40.90%53.18%65.45%77.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)151.56200.95242.44276.91305.16327.90347.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate-8.20%-7.20%-6.20%
Year 1 PV (M)186.28188.31190.34
Year 2 PV (M)208.34212.90217.51
Year 3 PV (M)220.59227.88235.32
Year 4 PV (M)225.35235.33245.64
Year 5 PV (M)224.46236.96250.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,401.126,757.457,129.48
Equity Value (M)7,466.147,858.838,268.30
Shares Outstanding (M)809.14809.14809.14
Fair Value$9.23$9.71$10.22
Upside / Downside8.56%14.27%20.22%

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