Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Loma Negra Compañía Industrial Argentina Sociedad Anónima (LOMA.BA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$413.21 - $588.55$499.43
Multi-Stage$612.53 - $673.98$642.66
Blended Fair Value$571.04
Current Price$2,650.00
Upside-78.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.00148.90116.420.0013.430.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%27.89%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%10.38%20.74%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)35,819.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)35,817.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,163.804,477.382,686.43
Cash Retained (M)35,817.0035,817.0035,817.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,163.80-4,477.38-2,686.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)28,653.2031,339.6333,130.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)583.26583.26583.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share49.1353.7356.80
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share49.1353.7356.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend49.1353.7456.81
WACC / Discount Rate9.65%9.65%9.65%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$413.21$499.43$588.55
Upside / Downside-84.41%-81.15%-77.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)35,819.0035,460.8135,106.2034,755.1434,407.5934,063.5135,085.42
Payout Ratio0.01%18.00%36.00%54.00%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.006,384.5312,639.4118,768.5524,773.8530,657.1632,454.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.65%9.65%9.65%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)5,763.745,822.555,881.36
Year 2 PV (M)10,300.9510,512.2410,725.68
Year 3 PV (M)13,808.8114,235.8614,671.62
Year 4 PV (M)16,454.8617,136.8417,839.80
Year 5 PV (M)18,382.6419,339.8720,336.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)292,554.49307,788.48323,650.58
Equity Value (M)357,265.49374,835.85393,105.61
Shares Outstanding (M)583.26583.26583.26
Fair Value$612.53$642.66$673.98
Upside / Downside-76.89%-75.75%-74.57%

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