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Definitive Analysis

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Kimberly-Clark de México, S. A. B. de C. V. (KIMBERA.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$54.08 - $138.45$81.80
Multi-Stage$65.21 - $71.48$68.29
Blended Fair Value$75.04
Current Price$34.40
Upside118.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%2.71%1.871.631.651.731.610.000.001.591.540.75
YoY Growth--14.81%-1.22%-4.78%7.30%0.00%0.00%-100.00%3.62%105.11%-47.61%
Dividend Yield--5.58%4.20%4.34%6.19%4.62%0.00%0.00%4.76%3.79%1.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,459.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,290.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,169.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,491.97932.48559.49
Cash Retained (M)3,169.413,169.413,169.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,491.97-932.48-559.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,677.442,236.922,609.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,057.783,057.783,057.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.730.85
LTM Dividend per Share1.401.401.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.730.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.952.132.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate2.72%3.72%4.72%
Fair Value$54.08$81.80$138.45
Upside / Downside57.22%137.78%302.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,459.867,737.388,025.238,323.788,633.448,954.629,223.26
Payout Ratio57.51%64.01%70.51%77.01%83.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,290.454,952.785,658.456,409.777,209.168,059.168,531.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate2.72%3.72%4.72%
Year 1 PV (M)4,608.824,653.684,698.55
Year 2 PV (M)4,899.804,995.675,092.46
Year 3 PV (M)5,164.925,317.245,472.52
Year 4 PV (M)5,405.635,619.235,839.09
Year 5 PV (M)5,623.315,902.416,192.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)173,702.77182,324.15191,284.50
Equity Value (M)199,405.26208,812.38218,579.61
Shares Outstanding (M)3,057.783,057.783,057.78
Fair Value$65.21$68.29$71.48
Upside / Downside89.57%98.51%107.80%

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