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Definitive Analysis

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J D Wetherspoon plc (JDW.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$160.85 - $189.51$177.60
Multi-Stage$37.01 - $40.57$38.76
Blended Fair Value$108.18
Current Price$6.25
Upside1,630.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.38%2.92%0.160.000.000.000.000.070.100.100.110.12
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-33.84%-0.02%-5.22%-5.91%-2.75%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.81%0.67%0.85%1.07%1.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)116.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)97.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.3614.608.76
Cash Retained (M)97.3297.3297.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.36-14.60-8.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)73.9682.7288.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)122.55122.55122.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.600.670.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.600.670.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.760.830.88
WACC / Discount Rate5.64%5.64%5.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$160.85$177.60$189.51
Upside / Downside2,473.59%2,741.54%2,932.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)116.78124.37132.45141.06150.23159.99164.79
Payout Ratio16.66%31.33%46.00%60.67%75.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.4638.9760.9385.57113.17143.99152.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.64%5.64%5.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)36.5436.8837.23
Year 2 PV (M)53.5754.5955.62
Year 3 PV (M)70.5672.5874.65
Year 4 PV (M)87.5090.8694.33
Year 5 PV (M)104.39109.44114.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,183.124,385.174,594.95
Equity Value (M)4,535.694,749.534,971.45
Shares Outstanding (M)122.55122.55122.55
Fair Value$37.01$38.76$40.57
Upside / Downside492.18%520.10%549.08%

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