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Definitive Analysis

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ICICI Bank Limited (ICICIBANK.BO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,736.40 - $14,697.85$13,774.03
Multi-Stage$2,076.03 - $2,274.04$2,173.21
Blended Fair Value$7,973.62
Current Price$1,348.00
Upside491.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS51.36%8.61%9.767.764.821.920.001.231.622.384.754.79
YoY Growth--25.77%60.90%151.18%0.00%-100.00%-24.17%-31.89%-49.87%-0.85%11.95%
Dividend Yield--0.68%0.64%0.52%0.27%0.00%0.35%0.37%0.86%1.64%2.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)533,002.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70,412.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)462,589.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)106,600.5066,625.3139,975.19
Cash Retained (M)462,589.80462,589.80462,589.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-106,600.50-66,625.31-39,975.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)355,989.30395,964.49422,614.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,212.007,212.007,212.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share49.3654.9058.60
LTM Dividend per Share9.769.769.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share49.3654.9058.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend59.1264.6768.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.59%6.59%6.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5,736.40$13,774.03$14,697.85
Upside / Downside325.55%921.81%990.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)533,002.50567,647.66604,544.76643,840.17685,689.78730,259.62752,167.41
Payout Ratio13.21%28.57%43.93%59.28%74.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70,412.70162,168.20265,554.42381,695.69511,813.36657,233.66695,754.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.59%6.59%6.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)150,717.20152,145.80153,574.40
Year 2 PV (M)229,375.89233,744.86238,155.04
Year 3 PV (M)306,414.00315,210.04324,172.83
Year 4 PV (M)381,856.40396,541.52411,646.19
Year 5 PV (M)455,727.64477,739.46500,593.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,448,255.5514,097,811.3214,772,227.12
Equity Value (M)14,972,346.6815,673,193.0016,400,369.30
Shares Outstanding (M)7,212.007,212.007,212.00
Fair Value$2,076.03$2,173.21$2,274.04
Upside / Downside54.01%61.22%68.70%

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