Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$61.30 - $122.14$85.07
Multi-Stage$56.87 - $62.28$59.52
Blended Fair Value$72.29
Current Price$109.65
Upside-34.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.27%1.16%0.450.450.460.470.470.480.440.410.410.40
YoY Growth--0.01%-1.98%-2.24%0.39%-2.48%8.44%8.40%0.60%0.58%0.62%
Dividend Yield--0.60%0.80%1.12%1.44%1.17%3.17%0.99%0.73%0.81%0.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)182.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)159.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.4922.8113.68
Cash Retained (M)159.74159.74159.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.49-22.81-13.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)123.25136.94146.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)50.5050.5050.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.442.712.89
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.442.712.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.893.163.34
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate3.82%4.82%5.82%
Fair Value$61.30$85.07$122.14
Upside / Downside-44.10%-22.42%11.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)182.46191.26200.48210.16220.29230.92237.85
Payout Ratio12.45%27.96%43.47%58.98%74.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.7153.4787.15123.95164.10207.83220.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate3.82%4.82%5.82%
Year 1 PV (M)48.7149.1849.65
Year 2 PV (M)72.3373.7375.14
Year 3 PV (M)93.7296.4599.24
Year 4 PV (M)113.03117.45122.00
Year 5 PV (M)130.42136.82143.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,413.812,532.322,655.43
Equity Value (M)2,872.033,005.963,144.94
Shares Outstanding (M)50.5050.5050.50
Fair Value$56.87$59.52$62.28
Upside / Downside-48.13%-45.71%-43.20%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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