Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Grupo Gigante, S. A. B. de C. V. (GIGANTE.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.45 - $32.38$25.89
Multi-Stage$32.64 - $35.89$34.23
Blended Fair Value$30.06
Current Price$28.65
Upside4.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.140.010.010.000.080.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%1,635.45%-5.43%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.49%0.03%0.04%0.00%0.23%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,994.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)248.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,745.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)398.82249.26149.56
Cash Retained (M)1,745.531,745.531,745.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-398.82-249.26-149.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,346.711,496.271,595.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)994.23994.23994.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.351.501.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.351.501.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.601.751.86
WACC / Discount Rate7.66%7.66%7.66%
Growth Rate-0.17%0.83%1.83%
Fair Value$20.45$25.89$32.38
Upside / Downside-28.64%-9.63%13.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,994.092,010.622,027.292,044.102,061.052,078.142,140.48
Payout Ratio12.46%27.97%43.48%58.99%74.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)248.56562.41881.441,205.731,535.341,870.331,979.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.66%7.66%7.66%
Growth Rate-0.17%0.83%1.83%
Year 1 PV (M)517.19522.37527.55
Year 2 PV (M)745.42760.43775.58
Year 3 PV (M)937.69966.15995.18
Year 4 PV (M)1,098.031,142.691,188.70
Year 5 PV (M)1,230.071,292.931,358.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,922.3629,349.1730,833.72
Equity Value (M)32,450.7634,033.7435,679.07
Shares Outstanding (M)994.23994.23994.23
Fair Value$32.64$34.23$35.89
Upside / Downside13.92%19.48%25.26%

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