Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Grafton Group plc (GFTU.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.12 - $16.69$13.76
Multi-Stage$19.34 - $21.18$20.24
Blended Fair Value$17.00
Current Price$10.22
Upside66.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.72%13.03%0.360.360.370.420.000.220.190.170.150.13
YoY Growth--0.86%-1.76%-13.02%0.00%-100.00%13.96%14.51%12.18%12.13%24.63%
Dividend Yield--3.78%3.95%4.64%3.42%0.00%2.52%2.98%2.08%2.71%1.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)264.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)198.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)66.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.9433.0919.85
Cash Retained (M)66.5566.5566.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.94-33.09-19.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.6133.4646.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)201.61201.61201.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.170.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.980.980.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.170.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.051.151.21
WACC / Discount Rate8.27%8.27%8.27%
Growth Rate-1.08%-0.08%0.92%
Fair Value$11.12$13.76$16.69
Upside / Downside8.82%34.63%63.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)264.68264.48264.28264.08263.88263.68271.59
Payout Ratio74.86%77.89%80.91%83.94%86.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)198.13205.99213.84221.67229.50237.31251.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.27%8.27%8.27%
Growth Rate-1.08%-0.08%0.92%
Year 1 PV (M)188.36190.26192.17
Year 2 PV (M)178.80182.43186.10
Year 3 PV (M)169.48174.68179.97
Year 4 PV (M)160.45167.03173.82
Year 5 PV (M)151.71159.53167.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,049.523,206.803,370.51
Equity Value (M)3,898.324,080.744,270.25
Shares Outstanding (M)201.61201.61201.61
Fair Value$19.34$20.24$21.18
Upside / Downside89.20%98.05%107.25%

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