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Definitive Analysis

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Guardian Capital Group Limited (GCG-A.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$187.77 - $555.50$296.56
Multi-Stage$169.15 - $185.40$177.13
Blended Fair Value$236.84
Current Price$43.25
Upside447.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.99%17.24%1.471.310.960.770.690.640.550.460.400.36
YoY Growth--12.46%35.96%25.52%10.26%8.08%17.05%19.68%14.01%12.58%19.35%
Dividend Yield--3.65%2.69%2.21%1.92%2.35%3.50%2.28%1.88%1.56%1.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)181.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)145.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.3622.7313.64
Cash Retained (M)145.13145.13145.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.36-22.73-13.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)108.77122.40131.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24.1924.1924.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.505.065.44
LTM Dividend per Share1.521.521.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.505.065.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.016.586.95
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate3.80%4.80%5.80%
Fair Value$187.77$296.56$555.50
Upside / Downside334.14%585.69%1,184.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)181.82190.56199.71209.30219.35229.89236.79
Payout Ratio20.18%34.14%48.11%62.07%76.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.6965.0796.08129.92166.79206.90219.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate3.80%4.80%5.80%
Year 1 PV (M)60.1660.7461.32
Year 2 PV (M)82.1383.7285.32
Year 3 PV (M)102.68105.67108.73
Year 4 PV (M)121.87126.64131.54
Year 5 PV (M)139.78146.64153.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,585.193,761.243,944.14
Equity Value (M)4,091.814,284.654,484.83
Shares Outstanding (M)24.1924.1924.19
Fair Value$169.15$177.13$185.40
Upside / Downside291.10%309.54%328.67%

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