Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Ferrovial SE (FER.MC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.90 - $46.03$37.41
Multi-Stage$58.53 - $64.50$61.46
Blended Fair Value$49.43
Current Price$45.26
Upside9.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.39%-7.22%0.180.190.180.040.170.330.330.300.320.37
YoY Growth---4.41%3.03%325.81%-74.59%-48.74%-0.83%10.09%-3.54%-15.36%-2.91%
Dividend Yield--0.45%0.57%0.75%0.16%0.75%1.23%1.89%1.59%1.85%1.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,332.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)130.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,202.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)466.50291.56174.94
Cash Retained (M)2,202.502,202.502,202.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-466.50-291.56-174.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,736.001,910.942,027.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)716.96716.96716.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.422.672.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.422.672.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.602.853.01
WACC / Discount Rate6.95%6.95%6.95%
Growth Rate-1.61%-0.61%0.39%
Fair Value$29.90$37.41$46.03
Upside / Downside-33.93%-17.35%1.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,332.502,318.162,303.912,289.742,275.672,261.682,329.53
Payout Ratio5.57%22.46%39.34%56.23%73.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)130.00520.63906.451,287.511,663.852,035.512,154.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.95%6.95%6.95%
Growth Rate-1.61%-0.61%0.39%
Year 1 PV (M)481.91486.80491.70
Year 2 PV (M)776.63792.49808.52
Year 3 PV (M)1,021.061,052.521,084.61
Year 4 PV (M)1,221.381,271.801,323.76
Year 5 PV (M)1,383.071,454.801,529.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,082.6539,005.9141,008.16
Equity Value (M)41,966.6944,064.3346,246.24
Shares Outstanding (M)716.96716.96716.96
Fair Value$58.53$61.46$64.50
Upside / Downside29.33%35.79%42.52%

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