Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Exosens (EXENS.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.63 - $13.68$11.63
Multi-Stage$14.26 - $15.68$14.96
Blended Fair Value$13.29
Current Price$40.35
Upside-67.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)63.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)58.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.717.944.77
Cash Retained (M)58.4658.4658.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.71-7.94-4.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)45.7550.5253.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)43.7043.7043.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.051.161.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.051.161.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.271.34
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$9.63$11.63$13.68
Upside / Downside-76.13%-71.19%-66.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)63.5462.9062.2761.6561.0460.4262.24
Payout Ratio7.99%24.39%40.80%57.20%73.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.0815.3425.4135.2644.9254.3857.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)13.8313.9714.11
Year 2 PV (M)20.6421.0621.49
Year 3 PV (M)25.8226.6127.43
Year 4 PV (M)29.6430.8732.13
Year 5 PV (M)32.3434.0235.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)501.00527.09554.26
Equity Value (M)623.27653.63685.20
Shares Outstanding (M)43.7043.7043.70
Fair Value$14.26$14.96$15.68
Upside / Downside-64.66%-62.93%-61.14%

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