Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Embellence Group AB (publ) (EMBELL.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.24 - $39.03$31.64
Multi-Stage$57.29 - $63.07$60.12
Blended Fair Value$45.88
Current Price$37.40
Upside22.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.770.770.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%3.24%3.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)64.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)35.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.808.004.80
Cash Retained (M)35.0035.0035.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.80-8.00-4.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.2027.0030.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23.5423.5423.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.941.151.28
LTM Dividend per Share1.231.231.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.941.151.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.182.382.52
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$25.24$31.64$39.03
Upside / Downside-32.51%-15.41%4.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)64.0063.3662.7362.1061.4860.8662.69
Payout Ratio45.31%54.25%63.19%72.13%81.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.0034.3739.6444.7949.8454.7857.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)31.9732.2932.62
Year 2 PV (M)34.2834.9835.69
Year 3 PV (M)36.0237.1438.27
Year 4 PV (M)37.2738.8240.41
Year 5 PV (M)38.1040.0942.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,170.971,231.941,295.43
Equity Value (M)1,348.611,415.261,484.58
Shares Outstanding (M)23.5423.5423.54
Fair Value$57.29$60.12$63.07
Upside / Downside53.19%60.76%68.64%

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