Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Diageo plc (DGE.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$249.00 - $550.94$516.28
Multi-Stage$100.64 - $110.17$105.31
Blended Fair Value$310.80
Current Price$18.28
Upside1,600.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.90%5.53%1.031.000.920.930.740.740.730.710.680.65
YoY Growth--2.50%8.57%-0.90%26.59%0.00%1.42%2.66%4.36%4.99%7.61%
Dividend Yield--5.62%4.04%2.73%2.64%2.13%2.75%2.15%2.60%2.99%3.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,227.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,540.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,687.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,245.52778.45467.07
Cash Retained (M)1,687.601,687.601,687.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,245.52-778.45-467.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)442.08909.151,220.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,235.502,235.502,235.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.410.55
LTM Dividend per Share2.032.032.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.410.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.232.442.58
WACC / Discount Rate5.84%5.84%5.84%
Growth Rate4.90%5.90%6.90%
Fair Value$249.00$516.28$550.94
Upside / Downside1,262.13%2,724.30%2,913.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,227.606,595.136,984.347,396.537,833.048,295.318,544.17
Payout Ratio72.90%76.32%79.74%83.16%86.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,540.005,033.475,569.376,150.996,781.867,465.787,903.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.84%5.84%5.84%
Growth Rate4.90%5.90%6.90%
Year 1 PV (M)4,710.804,755.714,800.62
Year 2 PV (M)4,878.224,971.675,066.01
Year 3 PV (M)5,042.305,187.885,336.23
Year 4 PV (M)5,203.085,404.335,611.37
Year 5 PV (M)5,360.615,621.045,891.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)199,784.30209,490.05219,569.41
Equity Value (M)224,979.31235,430.68246,275.12
Shares Outstanding (M)2,235.502,235.502,235.50
Fair Value$100.64$105.31$110.17
Upside / Downside450.54%476.12%502.66%

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