Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$123.34 - $183.40$151.97
Multi-Stage$226.12 - $248.98$237.32
Blended Fair Value$194.65
Current Price$246.00
Upside-20.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%2.001.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.75%0.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)29,707.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,900.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)25,807.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,941.483,713.422,228.05
Cash Retained (M)25,807.3825,807.3825,807.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,941.48-3,713.42-2,228.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)19,865.9122,093.9623,579.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,950.001,950.001,950.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.1911.3312.09
LTM Dividend per Share2.002.002.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.1911.3312.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.1913.3314.09
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$123.34$151.97$183.40
Upside / Downside-49.86%-38.22%-25.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)29,707.3829,410.3129,116.2128,825.0528,536.7928,251.4329,098.97
Payout Ratio13.13%28.50%43.88%59.25%74.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,900.008,382.6612,775.2717,079.1921,295.7625,426.2826,916.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)7,705.897,784.527,863.15
Year 2 PV (M)10,795.7311,017.1811,240.87
Year 3 PV (M)13,267.5413,677.8514,096.53
Year 4 PV (M)15,207.4815,837.7616,487.43
Year 5 PV (M)16,691.2217,560.3718,465.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)377,257.39396,902.06417,356.69
Equity Value (M)440,925.24462,779.72485,510.01
Shares Outstanding (M)1,950.001,950.001,950.00
Fair Value$226.12$237.32$248.98
Upside / Downside-8.08%-3.53%1.21%

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