Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

PT Central Proteina Prima Tbk (CPRO.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.40 - $64.58$54.84
Multi-Stage$66.95 - $73.66$70.24
Blended Fair Value$62.54
Current Price$70.00
Upside-10.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.000.000.010.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.02%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)404,222.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)600.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)403,622.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80,844.4050,527.7530,316.65
Cash Retained (M)403,622.00403,622.00403,622.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-80,844.40-50,527.75-30,316.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)322,777.60353,094.25373,305.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)59,572.3859,572.3859,572.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.425.936.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.425.936.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.435.946.28
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$45.40$54.84$64.58
Upside / Downside-35.15%-21.66%-7.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)404,222.00400,179.78396,177.98392,216.20388,294.04384,411.10395,943.43
Payout Ratio0.15%18.12%36.09%54.06%72.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)600.0072,507.56142,976.91212,029.62279,686.98345,969.99366,247.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)65,417.4966,085.0166,752.54
Year 2 PV (M)116,382.33118,769.59121,181.10
Year 3 PV (M)155,714.21160,529.77165,443.61
Year 4 PV (M)185,316.68192,997.19200,914.00
Year 5 PV (M)206,819.39217,588.96228,802.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,258,726.903,428,416.373,605,102.25
Equity Value (M)3,988,376.994,184,386.904,388,196.06
Shares Outstanding (M)59,572.3859,572.3859,572.38
Fair Value$66.95$70.24$73.66
Upside / Downside-4.36%0.34%5.23%

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