Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Choppies Enterprises Limited (CHP.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.14 - $1.75$1.42
Multi-Stage$2.24 - $2.47$2.35
Blended Fair Value$1.89
Current Price$1.30
Upside45.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.38%0.030.020.000.000.000.000.000.000.020.03
YoY Growth--89.66%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-42.04%18.94%
Dividend Yield--2.28%3.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.87%0.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)235.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)84.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)151.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47.0029.3817.63
Cash Retained (M)151.00151.00151.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-47.00-29.38-17.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)104.00121.63133.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,852.581,852.581,852.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate-1.62%-0.62%0.38%
Fair Value$1.14$1.42$1.75
Upside / Downside-12.17%9.58%34.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)235.00233.54232.09230.65229.22227.79234.63
Payout Ratio35.74%46.60%57.45%68.30%79.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)84.00108.82133.33157.53181.42205.01217.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate-1.62%-0.62%0.38%
Year 1 PV (M)100.56101.58102.61
Year 2 PV (M)113.86116.19118.54
Year 3 PV (M)124.32128.15132.06
Year 4 PV (M)132.31137.78143.41
Year 5 PV (M)138.17145.34152.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,548.263,732.303,923.90
Equity Value (M)4,157.494,361.344,573.30
Shares Outstanding (M)1,852.581,852.581,852.58
Fair Value$2.24$2.35$2.47
Upside / Downside72.63%81.09%89.89%

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