Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Cake Box Holdings Plc (CBOX.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.83 - $46.38$26.57
Multi-Stage$5.64 - $6.16$5.90
Blended Fair Value$16.23
Current Price$1.80
Upside801.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.89%0.00%0.090.080.080.060.050.040.030.010.000.00
YoY Growth--13.10%8.74%24.60%22.77%26.25%53.85%99.30%645.47%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.19%5.04%6.28%3.02%1.98%3.42%1.60%1.01%0.14%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.901.180.71
Cash Retained (M)2.632.632.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.90-1.18-0.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.731.441.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)40.6540.6540.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.200.22
WACC / Discount Rate7.32%7.32%7.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.83$26.57$46.38
Upside / Downside501.51%1,376.17%2,476.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9.4810.0910.7511.4512.1912.9913.38
Payout Ratio72.27%75.81%79.36%82.91%86.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.857.658.539.4910.5411.6912.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.32%7.32%7.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)7.067.137.20
Year 2 PV (M)7.277.417.55
Year 3 PV (M)7.477.687.90
Year 4 PV (M)7.657.958.25
Year 5 PV (M)7.838.218.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)192.03201.30210.93
Equity Value (M)229.31239.68250.43
Shares Outstanding (M)40.6540.6540.65
Fair Value$5.64$5.90$6.16
Upside / Downside213.43%227.60%242.29%

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