Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd. (BDGI.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$272.61 - $321.25$301.03
Multi-Stage$181.97 - $199.92$190.78
Blended Fair Value$245.90
Current Price$34.95
Upside603.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.59%3.57%0.500.520.410.500.470.440.410.360.310.28
YoY Growth---3.74%26.44%-16.88%4.63%7.39%8.03%14.97%15.14%9.38%-20.12%
Dividend Yield--1.86%1.42%1.71%1.97%1.10%1.94%0.98%1.43%0.88%1.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)55.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)38.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.186.984.19
Cash Retained (M)38.0838.0838.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.18-6.98-4.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.9131.1033.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)34.1634.1634.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.790.910.99
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.790.910.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.311.431.51
WACC / Discount Rate1.66%1.66%1.66%
Growth Rate4.17%5.17%6.17%
Fair Value$272.61$301.03$321.25
Upside / Downside679.99%761.30%819.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)55.8858.7761.8065.0068.3671.8974.05
Payout Ratio31.85%43.48%55.11%66.74%78.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.8025.5534.0643.3853.5764.7068.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.66%1.66%1.66%
Growth Rate4.17%5.17%6.17%
Year 1 PV (M)24.9025.1325.37
Year 2 PV (M)32.3332.9633.59
Year 3 PV (M)40.1241.2942.48
Year 4 PV (M)48.2850.1652.09
Year 5 PV (M)56.8159.5962.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,014.106,308.376,614.05
Equity Value (M)6,216.546,517.506,830.06
Shares Outstanding (M)34.1634.1634.16
Fair Value$181.97$190.78$199.92
Upside / Downside420.65%445.85%472.03%

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