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Definitive Analysis

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Avation PLC (AVAP.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.79 - $2.46$2.13
Multi-Stage$3.63 - $4.01$3.82
Blended Fair Value$2.97
Current Price$1.90
Upside56.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-41.86%-8.71%0.010.000.000.000.000.090.080.050.030.02
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%15.98%59.39%101.32%9.90%47.99%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%4.35%2.35%1.73%0.87%1.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)24.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.893.061.83
Cash Retained (M)24.0124.0124.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.89-3.06-1.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.1220.9522.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)71.7071.7071.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.290.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.290.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate8.23%8.23%8.23%
Growth Rate-6.07%-5.07%-4.07%
Fair Value$1.79$2.13$2.46
Upside / Downside-5.60%12.20%29.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)24.4623.2222.0520.9319.8718.8619.43
Payout Ratio1.84%19.47%37.10%54.74%72.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.454.528.1811.4614.3816.9817.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.23%8.23%8.23%
Growth Rate-6.07%-5.07%-4.07%
Year 1 PV (M)4.134.184.22
Year 2 PV (M)6.846.987.13
Year 3 PV (M)8.759.049.33
Year 4 PV (M)10.0510.4810.93
Year 5 PV (M)10.8411.4312.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)219.61231.55244.00
Equity Value (M)260.22273.66287.66
Shares Outstanding (M)71.7071.7071.70
Fair Value$3.63$3.82$4.01
Upside / Downside91.01%100.87%111.14%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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