Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Asuransi Bintang Tbk (ASBI.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$170.36 - $218.40$196.06
Multi-Stage$308.27 - $343.17$325.33
Blended Fair Value$260.70
Current Price$442.00
Upside-41.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-22.90%-14.13%2.865.205.7010.546.0010.5010.1013.1012.5010.00
YoY Growth---44.96%-8.79%-45.93%75.57%-42.82%4.01%-22.91%4.76%25.00%-23.82%
Dividend Yield--0.70%0.56%1.04%3.61%2.04%4.17%3.28%4.20%3.47%4.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)23,108.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,441.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)21,667.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,621.762,888.601,733.16
Cash Retained (M)21,667.0221,667.0221,667.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,621.76-2,888.60-1,733.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)17,045.2618,778.4219,933.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)348.39348.39348.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share48.9353.9057.22
LTM Dividend per Share4.144.144.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share48.9353.9057.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend53.0658.0461.36
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-16.13%-15.13%-14.13%
Fair Value$170.36$196.06$218.40
Upside / Downside-61.46%-55.64%-50.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)23,108.8119,612.5716,645.2914,126.9511,989.6110,175.6510,480.92
Payout Ratio6.24%22.99%39.74%56.50%73.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,441.794,509.186,615.427,981.118,782.139,158.089,694.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-16.13%-15.13%-14.13%
Year 1 PV (M)4,051.174,099.474,147.77
Year 2 PV (M)5,339.765,467.855,597.46
Year 3 PV (M)5,787.755,997.266,211.75
Year 4 PV (M)5,721.755,999.556,287.35
Year 5 PV (M)5,360.635,687.926,031.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)81,134.8386,088.4691,281.15
Equity Value (M)107,395.89113,340.51119,556.50
Shares Outstanding (M)348.39348.39348.39
Fair Value$308.27$325.33$343.17
Upside / Downside-30.26%-26.40%-22.36%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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