Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ambu A/S (AMBU-B.CO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.70 - $17.60$14.49
Multi-Stage$15.34 - $16.80$16.06
Blended Fair Value$15.27
Current Price$99.40
Upside-84.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.280.270.350.370.350.280.170.17
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%2.78%-23.40%-4.08%6.52%22.67%63.04%2.22%200.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.31%0.16%0.13%0.33%0.21%0.26%0.30%0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)359.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)102.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)257.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)71.8044.8826.93
Cash Retained (M)257.00257.00257.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-71.80-44.88-26.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)185.20212.13230.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)266.50266.50266.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.690.800.86
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.690.800.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.181.25
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate0.59%1.59%2.59%
Fair Value$11.70$14.49$17.60
Upside / Downside-88.23%-85.42%-82.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)359.00364.72370.52376.42382.42388.51400.16
Payout Ratio28.41%40.73%53.05%65.36%77.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)102.00148.55196.55246.05297.07349.66370.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate0.59%1.59%2.59%
Year 1 PV (M)133.89135.22136.55
Year 2 PV (M)159.67162.86166.08
Year 3 PV (M)180.15185.58191.11
Year 4 PV (M)196.05203.96212.11
Year 5 PV (M)207.97218.52229.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,210.523,373.303,542.62
Equity Value (M)4,088.254,279.444,477.97
Shares Outstanding (M)266.50266.50266.50
Fair Value$15.34$16.06$16.80
Upside / Downside-84.57%-83.85%-83.10%

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