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Definitive Analysis

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Alfa Financial Software Holdings PLC (ALFA.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.83 - $9.47$5.73
Multi-Stage$2.69 - $2.93$2.81
Blended Fair Value$4.27
Current Price$2.25
Upside89.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.070.080.110.150.000.000.200.000.00
YoY Growth---80.71%-12.44%-31.19%-26.08%0.00%0.00%-100.00%5,974.30%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.59%4.72%4.55%5.77%11.24%0.00%0.00%3.76%0.08%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)51.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)37.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.346.463.88
Cash Retained (M)37.9037.9037.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.34-6.46-3.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.5631.4434.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)298.07298.07298.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3.83$5.73$9.47
Upside / Downside70.29%154.68%321.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)51.7055.0658.6462.4566.5170.8372.96
Payout Ratio26.69%39.35%52.02%64.68%77.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.8021.6730.5040.3951.4463.7567.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)19.6319.8220.01
Year 2 PV (M)25.0525.5226.00
Year 3 PV (M)30.0530.9231.79
Year 4 PV (M)34.6836.0137.39
Year 5 PV (M)38.9540.8342.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)652.31683.81716.53
Equity Value (M)800.67836.92874.50
Shares Outstanding (M)298.07298.07298.07
Fair Value$2.69$2.81$2.93
Upside / Downside19.39%24.79%30.40%

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