Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Pop Mart International Group Limited (9992.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$148.18 - $400.14$227.82
Multi-Stage$100.11 - $109.43$104.68
Blended Fair Value$166.25
Current Price$243.19
Upside-31.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS36.95%0.00%0.290.090.170.150.270.060.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--216.33%-45.85%9.42%-42.47%346.77%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.34%0.51%0.96%0.42%0.39%0.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,305.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,445.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,859.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,661.121,038.20622.92
Cash Retained (M)6,859.766,859.766,859.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,661.12-1,038.20-622.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,198.645,821.566,236.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,333.371,333.371,333.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.904.374.68
LTM Dividend per Share1.081.081.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.904.374.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.985.455.76
WACC / Discount Rate9.05%9.05%9.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$148.18$227.82$400.14
Upside / Downside-39.07%-6.32%64.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,305.618,845.479,420.4310,032.7610,684.8911,379.4111,720.79
Payout Ratio17.41%31.93%46.44%60.96%75.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,445.852,824.054,375.316,116.308,065.1310,241.4610,841.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.05%9.05%9.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,565.422,589.732,614.05
Year 2 PV (M)3,610.603,679.373,748.79
Year 3 PV (M)4,585.054,716.674,850.79
Year 4 PV (M)5,492.275,703.495,920.74
Year 5 PV (M)6,335.616,641.626,959.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)110,895.74116,252.04121,813.35
Equity Value (M)133,484.69139,582.93145,907.06
Shares Outstanding (M)1,333.371,333.371,333.37
Fair Value$100.11$104.68$109.43
Upside / Downside-58.83%-56.95%-55.00%

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