Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Leaf Global Environmental Services Co. (9597.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Environmental ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.15 - $21.80$18.39
Multi-Stage$24.44 - $26.85$25.62
Blended Fair Value$22.01
Current Price$94.80
Upside-76.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%2.001.250.060.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--59.74%1,986.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.77%2.66%0.13%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.141.340.80
Cash Retained (M)7.947.947.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.14-1.34-0.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.806.607.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.005.005.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.161.321.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.161.321.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.721.881.98
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$15.15$18.39$21.80
Upside / Downside-84.02%-80.60%-77.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10.7210.6110.5110.4010.3010.2010.50
Payout Ratio25.93%38.74%51.56%64.37%77.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.784.115.426.707.959.189.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3.733.773.81
Year 2 PV (M)4.464.554.64
Year 3 PV (M)5.005.165.31
Year 4 PV (M)5.395.615.84
Year 5 PV (M)5.645.946.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)97.97103.07108.38
Equity Value (M)122.19128.10134.23
Shares Outstanding (M)5.005.005.00
Fair Value$24.44$25.62$26.85
Upside / Downside-74.22%-72.98%-71.68%

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