Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Pan Gulf Marketing Co. (9593.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.85 - $57.24$46.28
Multi-Stage$82.81 - $91.35$86.99
Blended Fair Value$66.64
Current Price$21.00
Upside217.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.573.460.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-83.43%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%1.66%10.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)29.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.863.662.20
Cash Retained (M)28.4828.4828.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.86-3.66-2.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.6124.8126.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.507.507.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.023.313.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.023.313.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.133.423.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$36.85$46.28$57.24
Upside / Downside75.47%120.38%172.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)29.3129.0228.7328.4428.1627.8728.71
Payout Ratio2.85%20.28%37.71%55.14%72.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.835.8810.8315.6820.4325.0926.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)5.485.535.59
Year 2 PV (M)9.399.589.78
Year 3 PV (M)12.6613.0513.45
Year 4 PV (M)15.3615.9916.65
Year 5 PV (M)17.5618.4719.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)560.64589.83620.23
Equity Value (M)621.08652.46685.12
Shares Outstanding (M)7.507.507.50
Fair Value$82.81$86.99$91.35
Upside / Downside294.33%314.26%334.99%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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